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tv   NBC Nightly News With Lester Holt  NBC  November 13, 2016 6:30pm-7:00pm EST

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sydney for those who have chosen not to support me in the past, of which there were a few people, i'm reaching out to you for your guidance and your help so that we and unify our great country. donald trump is going to be our president. we owe him an open mind and the chance to lead. our constitutional democracien shrines the peaceful transfer of power. and we don't just respect that, we cherish it. everybody is sad when their
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remember that we are actually all on one team. this is an intermural scrimmage. we're not democrats first, we're not republicans first, we are americans first. we are patriots first. we all want what's best for this country. good evening, words from president-elect trump from secretary clinton and from president obama. a we've got much to talk about tonight. the race for president and the race for governor top the list, but there are others we'll also get to. before we do, many have asked, how do we get here? how did he win? what did we miss? well there is somewhat of a central theme, and for that, here's our capital bureau chief laura leslie. >> reporter: the election results show that democrat roy cooper won all the counties hillary clinton did, plus four
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donald trump. cooper's home county of nash, plus grantville, jackson and new hanover which was hit hard by the end of film incentives. republican pat mccrory got a few less votes than trump in many counties, 63,000 votes statewide while cooper got a few more votes than clinton in most counties. 119,000 statewide. that means some trump voters split their ticket and voted for op north carolina often voted split tickets but that hasn't been the case lately. >> in historic terms the split apparently toward cooper is not that great, but it is that great in comparison to current conditions, where the volts are so polarized. >> reporter: in another odd result democratic supreme court candidate mike morgan defeated republican bob he had understand mondelez by nearly
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that could be because the supreme court race wasn't labeled by party. >> how split ticketing happened there it might have been ballot position. that is the biggest stumper of the night. >> reporter: on the council of state republicans beat two sitting democrats but two other sitting democrats kept their seats. >> there was some very creative split ticket voting on the margins here that is going to be perplexing for anybody to completely understand. here with leslie, wral multi-media reporter mark week and from the university of chapel hill assistant professor joe cab. you are a numbers guy. now that you have had a couple of days to sort through all that we have seen from tuesday night, what's the biggest take away? >> i think the biggest take away is that the republican party in this state performed
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of different ways. we expected, going in, that burr would be the strongest of the republicans, trump would be somewhere in the middle and mccrory would struggle with h.b. 2. the margins were better for republicans overall but that held. we are still waiting to see who our next governor is officially because i think it is clear the h.b. 2 effects on the governor in particular. is everyone made up primarily of h.b. 2? >> some of it is. it is also the carolina come back question. the governor's main economic argument for his reelection is he has brought back jobs and prosperity to the economy but when we talked to voters the majority of voters didn't feel it. whether or not that is categorically true or simply a
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>> i think the other issue was he was a governor being led around by his general assembly rather than leading the general assembly. instead of saying this is my policy direction follow me, he was kind of going the other way. i think what we saw in the polling running up to the election he was trailing in strength the other two republicans you mentioned and he sort of made up some of that strength as he got to show ad response to disasters and emergencies and that helped close the gap at the last minute but i think the leadership issue is there with the carolina come back and h.b. 2. >> i'm curious those provisional ballots. as we are taping we know there is around 40, 45,000 right? >> probably more. >> so if we are assuming it is going to be like 2012 and half of them will be tossed that still leaves a whole lot of votes out there. is there a potential this
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races. >> there is a potential that it does. but the conventional and provisional ballots is one they tend to run more democratic. the other thing our guests and i were talking about this on the wii in, they have rarely changed outcomes for elections. i can't think of a time when we have counted up provisional ballots ask a statewide election has flipped. yes numberswise there is potential for change but you i think you would say that is not >> it is incredibly difficult. any of these races you have ever seen change in terms of a recanvass, normally it requires a few hundred votes difference on election night. once we get into the few thousands even in a larger state like north carolina it is hard to overcome. especially if the democrat has that lead traditionally more democrats vote provisionally based on changes in registration, more rentals, things like that. coming up with that kind of
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mean he would basically have to win then 60% of those ballots. that is asking for a lot. >> the small asterisk is there are also mail in ballots not yet totaled in that could have an impacket as well, although it is a much smaller group of potential votes there. >> >> there has been much made of the surprise of this election with donald trump being elected. much made by people who a lot of supporters are not claiming surprise, they are claiming this is what they wanted and what they thought would happen. we cover these things, and emotion is involved in it. there are no emotions involved in numbers. did you see it coming? in what you saw before the votes were cast? >> i think it is fair to say there was a data surprise that is for sure, of all of us. i mean, very, very few you know, folks in my area
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that said, i think that you know, i read a piece this morning defending nate silver. he basically said there was a one in three chance donald trump would be president. that is not a good chance but that is a decent chang chance. flip a coin three times and we got that flip. essentially, what we had were a lot of states that were three, four point clinton states what we expected going in. that is well within t of error. we saw this in the 2014 elections, we had a lot of senate toss ups that all moved right on election day. essentially we had a 3 to 5 point shift on that kind of leaning nature of the polls that we want across the board. but it was incredibly strong in the midwest. states like arizona, nevada even georgia really matched the polls.
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it wasn't just election day on election day. we had early voting this year and in early voting, record numbers of people coming out. several million people voted early.
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capital bureau chief laura leslie, mark weeker and dr. joe. we were talking about the presidential race and the numbers and polling. has the science of polling changed now forever? >> it's constantly changing. it has actually changed from 2014 to now from 2012 to 2014. the biggest are we keep adding more and more you know cell callers, basically if you pollster that doesn't clawed cell phones any more you are mostly discounted. and we are getting better at internet polling. i think the take away, the things we are going to be working on over the next few months are that in states like michigan, the internet polls were the best. they had it within about a point. you know, trump performed a lot better in internet polls in a lot of states and they more
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the national tracking polls. some of the ones that had better numbers for him had some kind of online or panel-based survey. it is still newter rain. >> my question is we did, this year 5 or 6% fewer democrats in the general makeup of early voters. we saw about 5 or 6% more independents in the makeup. when you looked at the breakdown in 2012 more than half of all black registered voters voted early. and about 40% of whites and then it swapped in this year. so is that mirroring do you think a change in the overall electorate or was this a one off? was this a change election that you are going to have to go back and reassess the electorate all over again in 2018? >> i think there was an obama era in term of things like
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on the polling effects. i live in an almost entirely african-american neighborhood in durham. the obama campaign by mid september had already been through that neighborhood once or twice. it felt like crickets a lot of the time and i know the clinton campaign and the state party did a great job of turnout in a lot of different places. overall durham county, orange county and here in wake county had great turnout. but darnout in terms of versus an african-american democrat. in durham we saw a lot of drivers there is a sports saying, the other side has coaches too. republicans have been watching what democrats have done over the last few cycles in terms of early vote and go have said we need to get in on that action. well they got in on that action this year. so it is not just democrats underperforming in the early voting republicans did better getting their folks to the polls during that early voting.
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know, got more folks out. and then did they still have enough of a pool left? or did they just get better at turning people out early? election night showed us they did better at getting people out early and they still had their same day surge. >> certain demographics, college educated suburban women did they necessarily break for mrs. clinton because of trump's remarks? well breakdown like we thought it would. on election night tom brokaw on the coverage talked about how much of the mainstream national media missed the seriousness of the trump supporters and the numbers of the trump supporters, according to tom brokaw because many of those news organizations live in the bubble of the east coast. >> that is the same thing i said. >> okay. so do we live in the bubble of wake county and the state
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statewide at times? >> you could feel it in wake county. i was at his first rally, trump's first rally in north carolina last december. mark you were there too. you could feel the energy then. you know? >> but did you think thessalonica going to really transfer? >> yes. i've covered one other thing like that, that was a recall of a governor in california that nobody thought was going to happen and that happened. that was a recall election back in 2001-2002. there is a certain, you can kind of feel it you kn? >> yeah. >> you had a population of people who were looking for something different. they felt like they had been missing something in our political scheme for all their lives and they found it. >> a home, a political home in a sense. >> so you weren't surprised that he carried the state? >> i actually predicted he would on a broadcast. i really thought he would take it by a couple of points. it was more than i thought.
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polling. we had a poll survey usa that came out a week before the election. it was taken during the time that there was still this question regarding the fbi and the clinton the new information on the clinton e-mail server or the e-mails. and a lot of people, inside this building and outside this building thought oh, this poll was really off. well it turned outside to be almost -- turned out to be almost spot on. on the burr prediction the mccrory prediction ahe high on trump. >> compared to the other polls. >> i think it was a little bit too strong because it took it on those few days. but overall it was one of the better polls we had for sure. i think the other thing was it was also an automated poll. trump did better at automated polls. and the difference of actually talking to a live human being on the other end of a phone even though you are anonymous
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may have been. >> does that make people more truthful? >> well folks might yes. we are seeing in some of the initial analysis from this is that when you have the anonymity of a click of a mouse or touching a certain button without a human being there, it made a small difference there. >> thanks for taking the time to do this. laura mark thank you.
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welcome back. as promised joining us now is rob christianson. you have been covering elections since 1980 i don't i have. >> how does this one stackups as far as the element of surprise is concerned? >> well, it is, it's a huge election, obviously. you think about change elections, you think of ronald wasn't quite a change election but that was an historic election. but i think this is in a category all by itself, david. and i think you talked a little bit about it earlier, and i, i think it's true, is that this was not only about democrats and republicans, it was about urban and rural. and like a lot of people, i've got blue collar roots. three of my four grandparents
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we are in a bubble here in the triangle in charlotte and many places like the triangle are doing pretty well. we've got a lot of globalization here, pretty good income, lots of people moving everywhere you see construction cranes. but across north carolina, and this is true, of course, lots of places in america. but across north carolina there is a lot of something like 49 counties have lost population in the last few years. and these unemployment figures don't really tell the whole story about everything from rising divorces and drug abuse and health issues. it is, there is a real sense of people being left behind and it
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republicans. it is between people being left behind and it really, it really was a bit of a revolution, i think in this election. we don't know how, exactly, it is going to play out. donald trump may have been not the perfect vehicle to be the voice of this concern, but it all came to a head in this election. >> how do you explain a state that ostensibly chose trump and burr, but also we think roy cooper as a governor and picked a democratic supreme court justice and seemed to split itself down other statewide races? >> well it really is a paradox. richard burr, obviously is kind of an insider's insider. he is a chairman of a committee, in tight with business lobbyist. a golf buddy of john boehner, the former house speaker. but i don't think he was, some
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portrayed him as that but i don't think he got that sort of attention where most voters, i think the presidential race, really was the big race in people's minds when it came to federal races and there were entirely different dynamics going on in the governor's race. north carolina has tended to vote very republican in federal races and vote democratic in state races. so you know, democratic governors before mccrory was elected which was the longest runny where in the country except for the state of washington. more moderates not liberal but moderate democrats in state haze. h.b. 2, you mentioned that earlier, i think that was huge.
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feeling this recovery. the whole message from governor mccrory was things are good, things are coming back. there is a much improved economy. and this should have been a winning message for governor mccrory. people were not feeling it the and the h.b. 2 message what were people seeing? they were seeing story after story about businesses not co h chipped away at their message. plus there were other things and i think you mentioned it earlier about i think there is a stature gap with governor mccrory. he did not have what the marines call a presence. people saw him and they made early judgments about him. i don't think he looked
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people made decisions early maybe it was because he was pushed around by the republican legislature or people just made judgments about him and he had a hard time overcoming that. >> as we look to the future, you believe roy cooper will be the next governor? >> well we don't know that for sure. but what we do know is in most cases these provisional ballots do not overturn the elections. and so it's a high probability that cooper will win. >> will he anything done with this legislature? >> well, that remains to be seen. obviously still, the big player in raleigh politics is going to be the republican legislature. they are still the big boys on the block. so it will be, whatever he can accomplish will be incremental. but, along with the supreme court, there are now, the democrats, for the last number of years, ever since the tea party infused republicans
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in 2010, the democrats have just been bystanders in raleigh. you know? the most they have been able to do is go to moral monday protests. republicans have controlled everything and controlled the dynamic and the democrats have just been observers, really. now they are players. now they may or may not control things but this changes the dynamics in politics. ey players. >> it keeps everybody at this table busy for the next four years. >> employment for journalists yes. >> it has not played out in every race so far, we are continuing to wait for the certification of all the ballots being cast and we'll have that definitely by the 18th. >> and there are some council of state races within a few hundred votes and legislative races that are very, very close and it will be very interesting
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these down ticket races end up flipping even if the provisionals don't end up changing the governor's race.
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. we would like to hear from you. you can follow us on twitter. send us an e-mail on the record at or snail mail to post office box 12,000, raleigh 27605.
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